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Across inland North County, three very different Democrats are making their final pitch to voters in the final days of a primary that will shape one of the year’s most important battles for control of Congress.
They’re among a crowded field looking to advance to the general election alongside one Republican who appears to have a November berth locked down — leaving voters to consider not just their records and policies but also their overall electability in what could be a tough race.
Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond has the endorsement of President Donald Trump, the most money (the only other Republican has raised none) and a longtime record in local elected office, and he is widely expected to head to a November runoff.
On the Democratic side, there’s not nearly so much clarity. Of the nine candidates on the ballot, three have locked up the lion’s share of the campaign money and big-name support.
San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert is going for the moderate lane, touting her record on public safety while also pushing an economic platform to expand bargaining rights for labor unions.
Palm Springs economist Brandon Riker is betting voters will back a grassroots candidate with little institutional backing but a message of reducing economic inequality.
Then there’s Ammar Campa-Najjar, who has sought a similar seat twice before and more recently for Chula Vista mayor. The longtime boyfriend of Rep. Sara Jacobs, he’s running on a populist economic message; he wants a nationwide billionaire tax and single-payer health care.
For both parties, the stakes may never have been higher in any race in the district.
When California passed Proposition 50, months after Texas Republicans redrew their state’s congressional districts, both parties had just begun a tit-for-tat battle over the maps that could determine control of Congress.
But a series of recent court rulings has blunted Democratic momentum in the redistricting arms race.
Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a majority-Black district in Louisiana, paving the way for other Republican-led southern states to erase similar districts. Days later, Virginia’s top court threw out voter-approved maps that could have added up to four Democratic congressional seats.
“Every Democratic pickup is now much more important,” said Carl Luna, a political science professor at Mesa College.
On the other hand, public approval of Trump has fallen so low that Mike Madrid, who owns the California campaign management firm Grassroots Labs, believes it would take a truly “radioactive” and unpopular Democratic nominee to lose the seat.
To win in a largely suburban district like the 48th, Madrid said, Republicans have to do more than energize their base; they have to perform well with women and independents in particular.
“None of that is happening,” Madrid said. “The overreach, and the fact that everything’s gotten worse, and there’s a war, and the Epstein files — it’s just a cascading effect. They’re going to vote for a check on this stuff.”
But unlike other leading candidates, Desmond has a record as an elected official representing people within the district. He has represented North County on the Board of Supervisors since 2018, and before that served as San Marcos mayor from 2006 to 2018.
As a supervisor, Desmond points to what he has secured for his district — better mental health and crisis response resources, more equipment for firefighters and shelter beds for homeless veterans and foster youths.
Neither Campa-Najjar or von Wilpert, both San Diego residents, live within the district; members of Congress don’t have to. In an interview, Desmond called both “formidable candidates” but suggested their lack of roots in the area could be a liability.
“I just think my advantage is already being elected here,” Desmond said. “I think I’m much more in tune with North County San Diego.”
Ahead of the end of the primary Tuesday, millions of dollars have already poured into and been spent in the race — much of it by outside groups.
Riker has spent nearly twice as much as his top Democratic rivals. His campaign has spent $1.9 million, more than half of it from April through mid-May, campaign finance disclosures show. His personal fortune has helped; he loaned nearly $1 million of his own money to his campaign.
Campa-Najjar has spent $1.1 million this cycle, compared with the $955,000 spent by von Wilpert. Desmond — who faces a far less competitive race at this stage, with Republicans’ votes apparently locked down — has spent $785,000.
Late one afternoon this month, Campa-Najjar arrived to the Escondido home of Sean Clark. Houses like Clark’s are familiar ground to Campa-Najjar. He ran twice before in the district when it comprised most of East County and parts of North County, including Escondido.
After chatting about the war in Iran, immigration and the economy, Clark asked Campa-Najjar what set him apart from other candidates.
“I’ve been in the community longer,” Campa-Najjar replied. “I didn’t just show up because of Prop. 50. I’ve been here.”
After his past races, Campa-Najjar took a few years off from seeking public office. In 2023, he joined the U.S. Navy Reserves on a direct commission; he is a lieutenant junior grade in a public affairs unit. Last fall, he enrolled in a master’s program in conflict resolution at Georgetown University but soon took a leave of absence to run for Congress.
On the ballot, he lists himself as a Navy reserve officer and educator. Financial disclosures show he made $40,000 last year from the Navy and $5,000 from Georgetown, where he worked as a teaching assistant.
Campa-Najjar believes he and his progressive platform are best positioned to energize the district, including its sizable population of Latinos, who make up a third of the electorate.
“The swing voters don’t want an empty suit,” Campa-Najjar said, noting that many voters are dissatisfied with local governments where Desmond and von Wilpert serve.
“They’re tired of the corruption at the local level and the failure to manage budgets,” he added. “That’s all laid at the feet of elected officials. So I think there’s a lot of anti-establishment, pro-populist fervor out there, and we’ll be able to prosecute that case.”
His lack of an establishment presence has not been for lack of trying. Whereas neither Desmond nor von Wilpert has ever lost an election, Campa-Najar has lost all three he has run in, including two for Congress.
In 2018, he lost to then-Rep. Duncan Hunter, weeks after Hunter’s indictment on corruption charges following a San Diego Union-Tribune investigation. He lost to Rep. Darrell Issa in 2020, after taking more conservative stances on gun control, abortion and the impeachment of Trump.
Most recently, he lost the 2022 race for Chula Vista mayor to Republican John McCann, in a city with twice as many Democrats as Republicans.
Former Mayor Mary Salas, whom Campa-Najjar was running to succeed, chalks up that loss to his “transparent insincerity,” after two previous campaigns emphasized his roots in East County.
“He failed to make the case that he was genuinely interested in the city of Chula Vista,” said Salas, who supports von Wilpert for Congress.
“This seat is going to be very important,” Salas said of the 48th District. “It’s very critical we get a candidate who can get some sense back to Congress.”
This cycle, those past failed bids are helping fuel considerable outside spending in the race. So far, super PACs and other outside groups have spent about $7.3 million.
About $3.3 million of that has gone solely to attacking Campa-Najjar, including $2 million from a pro-Israel group that has endorsed von Wilpert. Ads have focused on his history of changing positions on issues and allegations that he inappropriately promoted his Navy Reserve service in campaign materials.
KPBS reported last month that the Navy had taken “corrective action” with Campa-Najjar following complaints that he was referring to himself in campaign materials as a Navy officer instead of a Navy Reserve officer. Campa-Najjar subsequently revised his campaign website, but he insists he has always complied with military rules.
To Campa-Najjar, the attack ads and spending signals that pro-Israel and other outside groups oppose him because of his progressive platform and Palestinian heritage. “The Epstein class is trying to rig this election and rig our system,” he said in a speech to supporters earlier last week.
But Campa-Najjar is also benefiting from the influence of money in elections. An outside group called Serving CA has raised about $1.2 million to boost him and attack von Wilpert. Its biggest donor is his girlfriend’s grandfather, Qualcomm founder Irwin Jacobs.
Even as outside groups work to halt Campa-Najjar from being the Democratic nominee, a diverse coalition of members of Congress are supporting him, including San Diego Democratic Reps. Mike Levin and Scott Peters.
In a statement, Peters called Campa-Najjar “persistent” and someone who has learned from past campaigns.
“Ammar has significant name identification from prior runs, a history of leadership and impressive financial backing,” Peters said. “All are important to winning.”
Von Wilpert, who grew up in Scripps Ranch, casts herself as a longtime resident of the area she’s looking to represent in Congress, recalling spending big milestones of her early life in North County — buying her prom dress, visiting other high schools for band competitions.
“These are my home communities, and I’ve been working to serve them for years now,” she said.
Since joining the race amid the Proposition 50 vote, von Wilpert has built a coalition drawing on more support from labor unions, a traditional but powerful base of support in Democratic politics. Leading California labor unions have endorsed her, including the AFL-CIO, SEIU and the California Teachers Association. So have a considerable number of local Democratic clubs — key constituencies for the larger county party.
In an interview, von Wilpert said she’s won that support because she’s “authentic” and doesn’t “waver on my values as a strong Democrat.”
“They desperately want someone in Congress who will fight for them against the chaos and corruption in Donald Trump’s America,” she said.
In a reflection of her base of support, von Wilpert’s economic message includes expanding bargaining power for labor unions. She also supports reversing Trump’s tax cuts for the wealthy and restoring federal cuts to food stamps.
“Economic inequality is one of the biggest challenges I want to tackle,” von Wilpert said. “I strongly believe the ultra-wealthy need to pay their fair share of taxes in our country.”
While looking to tap the angst felt by Democratic voters now, von Wilpert has been known as one of the more moderate members among the nine Democrats that make up the San Diego City Council.
That traces back to her Council District 5 — a stretch of the city’s northernmost suburbs that has historically been its most conservative district.
On the campaign trail, von Wilpert has emphasized her record on public safety. That has included a 2021 city ban on ghost guns that she authored. But it also includes votes that have put her at odds with progressives in her party.
Last year, von Wilpert was among five council members who voted to continue the city’s use of automated license plate readers — technology that critics say enables mass surveillance of marginalized communities. At the time, she argued it prevented and solved crimes.
Barbara Warden, who represented District 5 in the 1990s as a Republican, said von Wilpert’s stance on public safety reflects the area’s more conservative bent. “She knows how government works,” Warden said. “She knows what it can do, and what it can’t do.”
But von Wilpert has served on the council during a time when public opinion of City Hall has soured.
To close budget gaps, the city has pursued unpopular revenue efforts like charging for parking in Balboa Park and beginning to charge single-family homes for trash pickup. Von Wilpert opposed the trash fees, but she voted for paid parking while conceding “I don’t love this.”
This month, the city agreed to scale back the trash fees and end paid parking in the park.
Von Wilpert has also landed in the council minority in opposing other unpopular measures, such as utility rate hikes.
She was one of three members to oppose the city’s 2022 settlement of two lawsuits over the city’s troubled acquisition of the office tower at 101 Ash St. — a deal that saw the city pay $132 million to a developer and its lender to buy out a pair of lease-to-own agreements. “This is them conspiring to rip off the city,” she said at the time.
She describes such votes as questions of principle.
“I’m not afraid to do 8-1 votes, to go down swinging, when I think it’s the right thing to do,” von Wilpert said.
Matt Liebman, a principal at Democratic consulting firm Mission Control who has worked on previous congressional campaigns in California, argued that von Wilpert has the right mix of support and a public record to succeed in both the primary and the general election.
“People do look for the most credential and effective candidates,” Liebman said. “It’s really impressive, I think, what Marni has been able to build.”
Beyond Campa-Najjar and von Wilpert, Riker is the other Democrat who has raised considerable money — and in the final sprint, he has spent more than $1 million of it, spending more than double what those two Democratic rivals did in the period from April to mid-May.
That spending has included an aggressive budget for TV ads, in addition to a staff and volunteer base that the candidate says has made hundreds of thousands of phone calls to voters.
“We built a campaign outside of the party infrastructure,” Riker said in an interview. “At the end of campaigns, you either begin to falter or you begin to surge, and we’re surging.”
Riker’s other advantage is time.
He launched his congressional bid back in April of last year — months before the prospect of redrawing California’s congressional maps was even on the table.
Initially, he was running to challenge Republican Rep. Ken Calvert. But after Proposition 50 drew portions of Calvert’s district in Riverside County into the 48th, Riker moved to run there instead.
Riker says his education as an economist and experience working at investment firms sets him apart.
His chief policy proposal would exempt people’s first $50,000 in income exempt from the federal payroll tax known as FICA that funds Social Security and Medicare. He would offset the revenue losses by removing the income cap on such taxes, now $184,000, so that higher-income earners would pay larger shares of their income into that tax.
“This is about actually getting cash back into the system (for) the lower income earners and the businesses that are struggling,” Riker said. “That’s what people want to hear, and that’s where I can challenge Desmond better than anyone else.”
Six other Democrats whose campaigns have had less traction are on the primary ballot. They include Vista City Councilmember Corinna Contreras, Board of Equalization member Mike Schaefer and Abel Chavez, a school board member in Riverside County. Eric Shaw, Ferguson Porter and Stephen Clemons also appear, but Clemons has dropped out and endorsed von Wilpert.
In addition to the nine Democrats, there is one other Republican, Kevin O’Neil, and a candidate, Luis Reyna, who is not registered with a political party.
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