Can you believe it? We already have eight weeks of the 2026 fantasy football season behind us, and many managers are already looking ahead to playoff seeding and matchups. We are getting dangerously close to the part of the fantasy season where what a player has done matters less than what they are about to do.
That means we have to make uncomfortable decisions as we weigh weekly scores against the advanced data. Do we hold on to a player who has disappointed for eight weeks? Do we move on and make the cut? This week I had to cut the sixth WR on one of my teams due to bye weeks; his name was Adonai Mitchell. Facepalm.
If the last couple of weeks have felt weird, you would be right. WR TPRR has declined for two consecutive weeks, giving us the lowest two weeks of the season. TEs and RBs both had their second-highest median TPRR of the season, to boot.
W1 — WR 19.7%, TE 16.7%, RB 16.7%
W2 — WR 20.0%, TE 15.8%, RB 18.2%
W3 — WR 19.2%, TE 18.2%, RB 20.0%
W4 — WR 18.2%, TE 17.6%, RB 18.5%
W5 — WR 18.2%, TE 18.2%, RB 20.0%
W6 — WR 19.4%, TE 20.4%, RB 16.7%
W7 — WR 17.8%, TE 18.4%, RB 25.0%
W8 — WR 17.4%, TE 20.0%, RB 21.7%
Historically speaking, from 2018-2025, WRs have been between 18.8% and 20.4%. The small dip in the last two weeks does not concern me.
Last week I introduced Breakout Watch, which identifies players who are earning targets but whose fantasy production isn’t there yet. Ironically, I used Wan’Dale Robinson as a case for reading the narrative behind the data. I implied that even if his TPRR percentile matched his fantasy, he would struggle for relevance. Well, with Carnell Tate out for Week 8, Robinson turned in a WR16 performance on the week. Did I mention that Week 8 was weird?
Anyway, two players stand out to me on this list. The first is Drake London. He is an alpha target earner, and the offense clearly runs through him and Bijan Robinson. You have to look at the whole picture when targeting a player. His team might not be that good, but London is getting the lion’s share of the passing work. Last week was an insane weather game too. Fun fact: London has posted a TPRR of at least 25% in six consecutive weeks. That is exactly the kind of consistency I am looking for when identifying a buy-low candidate.
The next guy that stands out to me is Jaylen Waddle. He is perceived as a bust by some, but I think that when you look a little deeper, his early season makes more sense. New team, different play-callers, and Bo Nix gaining confidence after his injury all point to reasons why fantasy points lagged behind and his TPRR was inconsistent. For three consecutive weeks, he has posted a TPRR over 29%, and there is nearly a 25-percentage-point gap between his TPRR percentile and fantasy points percentile. If his fantasy points catch up to his TPRR, he could be back in business.
Honorable mention WR: Keenan Allen is an old man, and he still earns targets at a high level. Would love to see his situation improve, but if Anthony Richardson is getting reps, then I am at a loss for how to paint that in a positive light.
One thing I am keeping an eye on for the last few weeks is the TE position. Through eight weeks, the season-long median TPRR so far is 20.6%, higher than any full-season median we have recorded since 2018. Is this another sign that we are entering a new golden age of fantasy TEs?
Golden age or not, I identified Colston Loveland last week as a player to watch with Caleb Williams coming back. He followed up last week’s 44% TPRR with a 30% TPRR in Week 8. We are so back!
I am still leaving the light on for Brenton Strange. He did not run enough routes to qualify for tracking this week, but he is still the TE10 in terms of TPRR, and he is on a team that is making a playoff push. He is worth monitoring for me.
Great players do great things. Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Malik Nabers all have a season-TPRR north of 30% and are so consistent when they are on the field. Their TPRR percentiles are keeping pace with their fantasy production, and it is glorious. And yes, we have to monitor Matthew Golden, who is just a hair away from being listed with the greats of 2026.
In closing, as much as it hurts me as a Charger fan, I will be targeting Jaylen Waddle in my leagues. I think I can get him on the cheaper side of things, and I can see his role expanding in the coming weeks.
Who are you targeting for your playoff pushes?
As usual, you can find some advanced TPRR graphs on my Twitter, and you can find me on the Ballers’ Discord throughout the week!
See ya next time!
All TPRR data comes from NFL Next Gen Stats. Fantasy Points are from nflverse.
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