Study finds USMCA boon to ag economy – agrinews-pubs.com

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement represents 1.8 billion bushels of corn demand, contributing $20 billion to the U.S. economy. (AP photo/Charlie Neibergall/AP)
CHESTERFIELD, Mo. — With a mandatory July 1 deadline for the trilateral joint review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement approaching, an economic study detailed the trade pact’s overall impact on U.S. agriculture.
“Together, the United States’ USMCA partners are the top export market for all corn products: bulk corn, ethanol and meat products,” according to the National Corn Growers Association.
The economic impact evaluation study was conducted using the Impact Analysis for Planning, or IMPLAN, model and results were revealed by the Agricultural Coalition of USMCA.
IMPLAN is a regional economic analysis software data application that estimates the impact or “ripple effect” of a specific economic activity. Data plugged into the IMPLAN tool used 2024 as the base year.
USMCA represented not only 37% of total U.S. corn exports in the 2024-2025 marketing year, but also made up 39% of U.S. ethanol exports and 33% of beef, pork, poultry and product exports.
“Putting this in terms of corn, in 2025, USMCA exports represented nearly 1.776 billion bushels of corn demand in the form of bulk corn, corn for ethanol and the corn equivalent of meat. In the context of annual use between 15 and 16.5 billion bushels of total use in recent years USMCA represents a truly critical portion of U.S. corn demand,” the report said.
“To put the sheer magnitude of that volume into context another way, the United States’ annual stocks in the near past have ranged between 1.5 and 2.2 billion bushels. If that pile of corn no longer has a market guarantee provided under USMCA’s provisions, the outlook for the U.S. corn industry is in grave danger when also dealing with a heavy stocks-to-use ratio and resulting low prices.”
Beyond a balance sheet issue, there is also the economic impact. Corn production does not just support farmers — it supports the communities around them, including related employment, local, state and federal tax bases and the American economy at large.
The IMPLAN modeling tool quantified the impact of corn production, even before value is added through ethanol or meat product processing.
The $7.314 billion in corn-equivalent 1.776 billion bushels generates $19.96 billion in economic output, 71,377 jobs, $4.99 billion in wages and $1.46 billion in tax revenue.
Every one bushel of corn grown in the United States that depends on USMCA supports $11.09 of associated economic activity.
Current, Future Markets
U.S. corn and product exports to USMCA partners have skyrocketed since the agreement was enacted in 2020.
Corn exports under USMCA have grown at an average growth rate of 12.5% by value per year since the agreement was enacted; ethanol by 20.4%; distillers grains by 3.0%; and meat and products by 7.1%. This is not total growth.
This is yearly, an impact that has compounded the longer the agreement has been in place and has meaningfully translated into large gains in exports we see today.
The U.S. corn — and ethanol and DDGS and meat — export program has been a bright spot in the recent past, expected to reach an incredible 3.3 billion tons this marketing year.
“The ability of export potential to expand to match upward-trending corn yields and planted acres will be critical to returning value to the corn grower and driving prices that allow farmers to be profitable,” the NCGA said.
“To continue to be competitive on the global market, the U.S. will not only have to maintain the market share it already has, but also continue to make gains to match growing exportable supplies. The stability and the sheer volume of trade underpinned by USMCA is important now, but will also be of growing importance to U.S. farmers in the future.
“The duty-free access codified under USMCA coupled with the nation’s geographical advantage gives U.S. corn growers a clear advantage into two major global markets, especially compared to fierce and growing competition from South American exporters.
“As Canada and Mexico’s demand for corn and related products grows annually, the U.S. is the obvious choice to meet the market in a symbiotic relationship. USMCA ensures that relationship fully supports and benefits the American corn economy.”
Soybeans
Mexico and Canada are also important customers for U.S. soybean producers. Canada and Mexico together exceeded $4 billion in exports in the 2023-2024 marketing year, or nearly 14% of total soy complex exports.
Mexico is the larger market for U.S. soy in North America, totaling $3.4 billion in 2023-2024. Two-thirds of that come from exports of whole soybeans, and most of the rest from soybean meal.
Canada’s most significant import from the soy complex was soybean meal, valued at $663 million.
USMCA Highlights
The USMCA free trade agreement went into effect July 1, 2020. It replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement implemented in 1994.
“USMCA is a mutually beneficial win for North American workers, farmers, ranchers and businesses. The agreement creates more balanced, reciprocal trade supporting high-paying jobs for Americans and grow the North American economy,” according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
The current USMCA highlights include:
• Creating a more level playing field for American workers, including improved rules of origin for automobiles, trucks, other products and disciplines on currency manipulation.
• Benefiting American farmers, ranchers and agribusinesses by modernizing and strengthening food and agriculture trade in North America.
• Supporting a 21st century economy through new protections for U.S. intellectual property and ensuring opportunities for trade in U.S. services.
• New chapters covering digital trade, anticorruption and good regulatory practices, as well as a chapter devoted to ensuring that small- and medium-sized enterprises benefit from the agreement.
What’s Ahead
“The renewal of USMCA on July 1 is by no means certain. NCGA has been vocal on the importance of the USMCA to the success of the American corn farmer, but the benefits from corn alone extend well beyond the farm gate and across the broader U.S. economy,” the NCGA said.
“At a time when the average grower is already operating at a loss and uncertain about the future, removing this important assurance of demand, future growth and stability would only add to the financial pressure. USMCA has been a clear success for the U.S. corn grower, but imminent policy decisions will determine if that legacy continues.”
Field Editor
Copyright © 2026 agrinews-pubs.com. All rights reserved. Published in La Salle, Illinois, USA, by Shaw Media.
Copyright © 2026 agrinews-pubs.com. All rights reserved. Published in La Salle, Illinois, USA, by Shaw Media.

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