USMNT clinches top spot in World Cup Group D: Everything you need to know about what happens next – The New York Times

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U.S. coach Mauricio Pochettino celebrates after the USMNT defeated Australia in Seattle. Troy Wayrynen / Imagn Images
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Around nine hours after its 2-0 victory over Australia on Friday afternoon, the United States clinched first place in the 2026 World Cup’s Group D when Turkey lost 1-0 to Paraguay in Santa Clara, Calif.
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By then, Mauricio Pochettino’s team had already returned to its Southern California base in a buoyant mood after sweeping to a second straight win to begin the competition.
With optimism for the U.S. at a new high, Matias Galarza’s excellent early strike for Paraguay only added to the positive momentum. It proved to be enough, and the U.S. can now firmly start planning in earnest for what lies ahead. 
Next Thursday’s third group game against Turkey now has no bearing on the Americans’ fate. Their path through the knockout bracket — at least in terms of dates and locations — is set in stone.
This is exactly what the USMNT wanted. Earlier in the day, midfielder Weston McKennie said: “It is amazing to know that we are going through but we don’t want to just go through. We want to win the group and be top of the group and try to get a way to advance in the fashion that we want to.”
Although all four Group D teams have one game remaining, the U.S. has an insurmountable lead thanks to FIFA’s new tiebreaker rules.
Whereas goal differential was the first decider at previous World Cups, head-to-head results are the first tiebreaker this time around. The U.S. has that tiebreaker over Australia after Friday’s win, and over Paraguay after last week’s trouncing in the opener.
So, even if the U.S. lost to Turkey, and even if Australia or Paraguay also reached six points, the U.S. would still sit atop the group. Turkey will finish bottom of Group D. Even three points against the U.S. would leave it unable to leapfrog Australia or Paraguay, with both of those teams now owning the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Less than three hours after they walked dreamily around Lumen Field, saluting a sold-out crowd, basking in a special afternoon, U.S. players were boarding a flight back to Southern California.
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They returned to their team hotel in Laguna Niguel at a reasonable hour, and after dinner, “honestly,” captain Tim Ream said, “I think we’ll all end up in the players’ lounge, talking about today and watching the final game of the day.”
That game was Turkey-Paraguay, and it likely altered how the U.S. will approach the coming week.
With the top spot in hand, the U.S. can rest players in next Thursday’s group decider vs. Turkey at SoFi Stadium near Los Angeles.
That doesn’t mean that Pochettino will. But it gives Christian Pulisic an extra week to recover from his calf injury before the next consequential game, and it will allow the U.S. to potentially sit players who have picked up yellow cards — and who would therefore be at risk of being suspended for the round of 32 if they picked up another yellow card against Turkey.
Those players are Tyler Adams, Antonee Robinson, Folarin Balogun and Chris Richards.
If they can get through the Turkey game without a yellow card, they’ll have a clean slate heading into the knockout rounds, because cards are wiped after the group stage.
No matter what, having won the group, the U.S. will play its round-of-32 game on July 1 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. at 8 p.m. ET, 5 p.m. local time.
It will learn its opponent over the coming week.
The scenarios, in some ways, are simple.
If Bosnia and Herzegovina beats Qatar next Wednesday on the final day of Group B, the U.S. will almost certainly play Bosnia.
If Qatar beats Bosnia, the U.S. will almost certainly play Qatar.
If Qatar and Bosnia draw, then the third-place team from Group B likely wouldn’t advance, and a wide range of possibilities would open up. In that case, the U.S. could ultimately face the third-place team from Group J, I, E or, least likely, F. None of those groups have yet played their second set of games.
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Why are those the possibilities? Because FIFA’s World Cup regulations lay out all 495 possible combinations of third-place qualifiers, and assign each third-place team to a spot on the bracket in each scenario. And in 329 of the 330 scenarios where the Group B team advances — as one of the top eight of 12 third-place teams — that team faces the winner of Group D, which is now the U.S.
The only scenario where Group B’s third-place team advances but doesn’t face the U.S. is if the third-place teams from Groups A, C, D and F are all eliminated.
The Athletic’s forecast gives the U.S. a 58% chance to meet Bosnia, an 18% chance to meet Qatar, and no more than a 5% chance to meet any other specific team.
The round-of-16 matchup would likely be with the winner of Group G — Belgium being the most likely. While Belgium beat the U.S. in March, it’s an opponent that’s more palatable than the likes of Argentina, Spain, France, England or others.
That Round of 16 game would be in Seattle.
The potential quarterfinal would be back at SoFi Stadium near Los Angeles, the Americans’ third time playing there.
The west coast path would likely allow the U.S. to stay at its base camp in Southern California, about an hour south of Los Angeles.
The Bosnia vs. Qatar game — June 24 at 3 p.m. ET — is by far the most meaningful from a U.S. perspective.
If that game ends in a win for either team, no other game matters for U.S. round-of-32 purposes.
Elsewhere, Group G is worth watching. Belgium plays Iran on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. Egypt plays New Zealand that same day at 9 p.m.
If Belgium doesn’t win Group G, the U.S. would be able to reach the quarterfinals without facing a top seed.
U.S. fans are starting to believe that a run to the quarterfinals or beyond is possible. They’re starting to dream, just as Pochettino is encouraging them to do. There is more optimism around the U.S. men’s national team right now than at any other point in recent memory.
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As The Athletic’s Paul Tenorio wrote Friday, the mere fact that people are talking about whether this team can win the whole World Cup represents a monumental step forward for the program, and the sport.
This can be a seminal, historic run for the program. After two games, the people are starting to dream.
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