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\u201cHistory shows us that energy crises create policy openings, and we think the conditions are probably in place for a window of policymaking,\u201d Hasan Nazar, head of policy at Crux, told Utility Dive.
The outcome of Tuesday\u2019s midterm elections could have serious implications for utilities, as candidates in both parties seek to capitalize on widespread concerns about energy affordability.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
Policy areas that could see the biggest impact include <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>data centers, energy tax credits and permitting reform,\u00a0 experts told Utility Dive.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
Hasan Nazar, head of policy at Crux, a finance technology company that connects tax credit buyers and sellers, said he believes <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>energy affordability will be \u201cdeterminative\u201d in this election.
Polls have given Democrats a strong chance of taking control of the House and possibly also flipping the Senate, but even if they do, Nazar noted that there would still be a split government with a Republican administration in place.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u00a0He hopes broad support for reform will lead to bipartisan cooperation on energy policy.
\u201cHistory shows us that energy crises create policy openings, and we think the conditions are probably in place for a window of policymaking,\u201d Nazar said.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
All U.S. House seats are up for grabs, along with one-third of the Senate and 36 gubernatorial seats.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
An Oct. 8 poll from Pew Research Center found that 74% of U.S. adults surveyed were <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>concerned about the price of gasoline and energy<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a>, the largest share of concern among all surveyed issues.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
As candidates campaigned this year, energy issues were central in many races.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
Dylan Reed, Advanced Energy United\u2019s managing director overseeing federal and political affairs, said Pennsylvania\u2019s race is also significant given the role that Gov. Shapiro has played in the ongoing debate over the PJM Interconnection\u2019s surging prices.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
In 2025, Shapiro was one of the PJM state governors who <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>threatened to pull out of the grid operator\u2019s markets<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
\u201cAffordability is the message that we see out here very clearly,\u201d Reed said.\u00a0\u201cI think when you are looking at high prices when it comes to your utility bill, the number one office that can impact that right now is the governor.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
Nazar said he thinks that following the election, in Congress \u201cthere\u2019s probably going to be at least a discussion about new kinds of tax credit incentives that could be deployed.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
In 2022, then-Vice President Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking vote in the Senate to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, which received no Republican votes and established long-horizon tax credits for clean energy along with new tax credit mechanisms like transferability.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
In 2025, a Republican-controlled Congress passed the OBBBA, <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>which shortened the horizon for some of the IRA\u2019s clean energy benefits<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a>. Now, if Democrats take back control, they could seek to revise the OBBBA\u2019s impacts, observers say.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
\u201cA flipped Congress where both houses are with the Democrats could have a dramatic turn on the energy policy landscape, and particularly with federal energy tax credits,\u201d said Heather Cooper, a partner at the law firm McDermott Will & Schulte. \u201cWe have seen pretty dramatic flip-flopping in the last five years as Congress has gone back and forth.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
However, Cooper \u2014 who advises clients on federal income tax issues related to the energy transition \u2014 said she thinks the clean energy industry is prepared for the possibility of future flip-flopping. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
\u201cMost of the players who are in this market \u2026 The reality is all of their business models are kind of used to a world where these tax credits have 1, 2, 3, 4-year horizons,\u201d she said.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
The IRA, which created a longer runway for the first time, resulted in a \u201cphenomenal amount of money poured into this industry,\u201d she added.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
Carl Fleming, global co-head of McDermott Will & Schulte\u2019s energy and project finance group, said, \u201cA number of folks have already worked out scenarios where some of these projects pencil out regardless of tax credits.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
\u201cI do think you’ll probably see an extension of the solar credit,\u201d he said. \u201cSolar took a good hit under OB3, but with rising energy costs, I think all that stuff’s on the table because if I’m running for office or trying to get back into office, and I can find a technology that can help bring those energy costs down \u2026 whatever it takes to kind of get these energy costs down, that\u2019s going to be on the table.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
Some utility executives have suggested<\/a> that the furor over data centers and affordability could die down after the elections.
Fleming said he thinks there may be a more fundamental shift happening. He pointed to <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>Texas\u2019 pause on data center grid interconnections<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a>, aimed at weeding out speculative requests, as a potential policy model.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
\u201cYou could question whether [the pause was] driven by the midterms or just normal processes, but I think that’s going to be the way folks will look at this at the state level going forward \u2014 taking a kind of investment-type approach to these projects,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
\u201cIt’s no longer a race to power; it’s a race to bankable power,\u201d he continued. \u201cData centers are coming along so fast, much faster than people had anticipated. It’s tough for legislation to keep up with.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
Reed said that the question of how to achieve speed to power, while preserving grid reliability and affordability, is what \u201cevery policymaker should be asking.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
Nazar said that post-election, he sees the chance for \u201cdurable\u201d bipartisan legislation.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
\u201cI think it is actually quite an interesting opportunity next year to have a necessarily bipartisan approach to these policies, where energy is top of mind for voters,\u201d he said. \u201cI think the [Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act] is a good signal of potentially a return to cross-party substantive, serious and impactful energy policymaking that I could foresee carrying into next year.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act aims to speed federal permitting for energy and infrastructure projects<\/a>, protect permits for approved projects and expand the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission\u2019s power to eliminate obstacles to new transmission. It was announced in September, the result of careful negotiation between Republicans and Democrats. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
But bill co-sponsor <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., warned in October that the deal could be \u201c[blown] up\u201d<\/a> by the Trump administration\u2019s moves to revoke federal permits for offshore wind farms.\u00a0
The bill has also been criticized<\/a> by some consumer and clean energy advocates who say it would favor oil and gas projects, weaken environmental laws, undermine state and Tribal authority and limit the judiciary\u2019s ability to intervene to prevent harm.
Nazar said he thinks the potential for BAAJA to be amended \u201cseems like that’s an ongoing conversation that appears to be in play.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>
\u201cThat said, I think we will see how the dynamics shift after tomorrow, if they shift at all,\u201d he added.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>