{"id":11464,"date":"2026-04-24T09:56:25","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T09:56:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/globalnewstoday.uk\/index.php\/2026\/04\/24\/after-maduro-whats-next-for-the-venezuelan-economy-international-banker\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T09:56:25","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T09:56:25","slug":"after-maduro-whats-next-for-the-venezuelan-economy-international-banker","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/globalnewstoday.uk\/index.php\/2026\/04\/24\/after-maduro-whats-next-for-the-venezuelan-economy-international-banker\/","title":{"rendered":"After Maduro, What\u2019s Next for the Venezuelan Economy? – International Banker"},"content":{"rendered":"

By <\/em>Valerie Hernandez<\/strong>, International Banker<\/em><\/span>
 
I<\/span>n recent months, the US government under President Donald Trump has sought to revive a reinterpreted version of the Monroe Doctrine<\/a><\/span>. Widely dubbed the \u201cDonroe Doctrine\u201d, it seeks to reassert the United States\u2019 historical supremacy over the Western Hemisphere. In the early hours of January 3, US special forces conducted a surprise attack in Caracas, Venezuela, which ultimately led to the seizure of President Nichol\u00e1s Maduro. So, it would seem that the Donroe Doctrine is in full swing in 2026. And the implications for the Venezuelan economy of this shock move could be profound.<\/span>
Indeed, the US is now pressing to re-engage with the economically beleaguered South American nation, as it emerges from one of the most severe contractionary periods in modern history. \u201cVenezuela\u2019s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by roughly three-quarters between 2014 and 2021,\u201d according to the US Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). More recent years have witnessed tentative signs of stabilisation, driven in part by steady gains in dollarisation and more buoyant trading activity with specific nations, most prominently China, Iran, Cuba and Russia.<\/span>
The US\u2019 January intervention introduced both upside and downside risks to this trajectory. For instance, much of the past decade has seen the onslaught of US-led Western sanctions against Venezuela become arguably the defining influence on its economy. Restrictions on oil exports, financial transactions and access to international markets severely constrained economic activity in the country and led to a pronounced deterioration in national income.<\/span>
With clear signs of d\u00e9tente<\/em> between Caracas and Washington since Maduro\u2019s abduction, however, expectations are growing that the weight of those sanctions on Venezuela\u2019s economy will gradually lighten. The U.S. Department of the Treasury (USDT) has begun issuing licenses that allow greater flexibility in Venezuela\u2019s oil sector\u2014for example, permitting US companies to supply equipment and services to support production. And on March 13, the Treasury Department\u2019s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) updated some of its General Licenses (GLs) to enable authorisation of certain activities, including:<\/span>
The incremental easing of such punitive economic measures suggests that the US is willing to administer sanctions relief for Venezuela. Sanctions may also become a mechanism of conditional engagement, with access to markets and investments increasingly linked to greater cooperation and political alignment between the two parties.<\/span>
The economic impacts of this shift could be substantial, with even partial relief helping Venezuela to export oil more freely, access foreign currency and stabilise its financial system. Should oil production rise as a result, moreover, Venezuela\u2019s economic-growth prospects will receive a much-needed injection. Higher export revenues would also feed into a more upbeat outlook for domestic demand, while improved access to imports could alleviate shortages and support industrial activity.<\/span>
The labour market is another key area of focus. Venezuela has experienced a large-scale exodus of workers over the past decade, with millions leaving the country in search of brighter economic opportunities, thus reducing the labour supply, productivity and Venezuela\u2019s overall economic potential. Should economic conditions improve, workers in sectors such as energy, construction and services may well return, especially if a decidedly bullish growth-and-investment picture materialises amid a more stable long-term economic environment.<\/span>
The sustainability of sanctions relief remains uncertain at this stage, however. Sanctions could be reimposed quickly should relations between the two nations deteriorate. Their conditional nature will likely prolong an uncertain environment, keeping investors at bay, at least in the short term.<\/span>
Venezuela\u2019s economic outlook also crucially depends on achieving enduring political stability, especially regarding its investment climate. Indeed, one of the most striking features of Maduro\u2019s seizure\u2014and unlike most historical episodes of US interventions in other countries\u2014is that it did not trigger the dismantling of Venezuela\u2019s existing government. Instead, power transitioned to Vice President Delcy Rodr\u00edguez, who assumed interim leadership shortly after the intervention.<\/span>
It would seem that Rodr\u00edguez has thus far been willing to \u201cplay ball\u201d with the Americans. \u201cThe Chavista movement, which once defined itself in opposition to US imperialism, must now rely on US support to survive,\u201d the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggested in a March 2 report. \u201cThis is forcing the regime into a complicated dance: To revive the economy, it needs to placate the United States without demoralizing its political base.\u201d<\/span>
The government is making visible moves to improve the stability of Venezuela\u2019s economic and investment climates. In late January, it signed a reform to the country\u2019s hydrocarbons law to allow private domestic and foreign firms to participate directly in oil production and sales. The amendments enacted effectively ended the long-standing monopoly of the state oil company, PDVSA (Petr\u00f3leos de Venezuela, S.A.), and are aimed at attracting external capital and technical expertise into an industry blighted by years of underinvestment and declining output.<\/span>
Within a couple of weeks or so of taking office, Rodr\u00edguez also confirmed that Venezuela had received approximately $300 million from initial US-facilitated crude sales, as part of a broader agreement aimed at reopening oil-trade channels. The pace of this development suggests that Caracas is not only cooperating with US demands but also prioritising foreign-currency generation as a tool for economic stabilisation.<\/span>
Rodr\u00edguez also appears to be repositioning Venezuela as an appealing, stable market for global investors. Having held direct meetings with domestic business leaders, signalled increasing openness to investment in key sectors such as energy and mining, and even established funds to channel oil revenues into wages and public services, it is clear that the new Venezuela seeks to integrate more capital participation into its state-dominated system.<\/span>
Beyond the commodities sector, moreover, further evidence of economic stabilisation can be found in the narrowing divergence between official and parallel exchange rates, amid improved access to foreign currency and tighter control over monetary conditions. While this does not yet fully solve Venezuela\u2019s inflationary woes, it does imply at least some restoration of price stability, which, if prolonged, should help achieve a sustained recovery in domestic economic activity.<\/span>
But while relations may be on the mend vis-\u00e0-vis<\/em> the US, Venezuela\u2019s ties going forward with other crucial economic partners\u2014particularly those classed as adversaries of Washington, such as China and Russia\u2014are less certain. Amid the suffocating weight of Western sanctions, Venezuela found a crucial economic partner in China in recent years, with Chinese state and private entities enthusiastically providing loans, investments and access to markets in exchange for oil shipments.<\/span>
The US intervention thus brings greater uncertainty to China-Venezuela relations. Should Caracas move closer to Washington, especially on the economic front, Beijing may have to accept a diminished role, with access to Venezuelan oil and investment opportunities less forthcoming.<\/span>
But given that the United Socialist Party of Venezuela remains in power under Rodr\u00edguez\u2014at least for the foreseeable future\u2014it seems unlikely that China will withdraw entirely, given its sizeable existing investments and strategic interests in the country. That said, it is also conceivable that Venezuela will be forced to navigate more carefully among major powers amid a more complex and competitive environment.<\/span>
In the meantime, Beijing is becoming more vocal in its opposition to the coercive influence that Washington is exerting over Caracas. \u201cChina firmly opposes the US setting restrictions on China-Venezuela cooperation by issuing so-called \u2018general licenses.\u2019 China\u2019s lawful rights and interests in Venezuela must be safeguarded,\u201d the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China\u2019s spokesperson, Mao Ning, said on April 1, in relation to the US issuing GLs for mineral investments and operations that exclude China, Russia, North Korea, Cuba and Iran. \u201cWhat the US needs to do is lift illicit unilateral sanctions on Venezuela at once, rather than use so-called \u2018general licenses\u2019 to whitewash its moves of undermining the lawful rights and interests of Venezuela and other relevant parties.\u201d<\/span>
\u201cVenezuela has the right to relations with China, with Russia, with Cuba, with Iran\u2026and with the United States,\u201d according to Rodr\u00edguez, who many have dubbed \u201cDelxiaoping\u201d after Chinese communist leader Deng Xiaoping, who opened up China\u2019s markets in the 1970s to usher in an era of unprecedented economic expansion.<\/span>
\u201cThe Deng Xiaoping reform era is a very interesting model for Venezuela,\u201d said Orville Schell, the Arthur Ross director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at Asia Society in New York, as quoted by The Guardian<\/em>. \u201cThey need to open up to the outside world and get the economy going \u2026 If she [Rodr\u00edguez] has brains, she will economically reform because, my God, she\u2019s got to get their oil industry back pumping and irrigating her government with some funds.\u201d<\/span>
 
Eugene\u202f A. Ludwig\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>27th Comptroller of the Currency<\/em>
Scott O\u2019Malia\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA)<\/em>
Byron Loflin\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Nasdaq<\/em>
Priyanka Rath\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>J.P. Morgan Payments<\/em>
Alejandro Padilla\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Grupo Financiero Banorte<\/em>
Marcello Estev\u00e3o\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Institute of International Finance (IIF)<\/em>
Ivan Burgara\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Institute of International Finance (IIF)<\/em>
Dalton Gardimam\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>\u00c1gora Investimentos<\/em>
Swati Bhatt\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Princeton University<\/em>
Gaurav Ganguly\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Moody\u2019s Analytics<\/em>
William F. Maloney\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>World Bank<\/em>
Guillermo Vuletin\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>World Bank<\/em>
Philip Marey\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Rabobank<\/em>
Marco Annunziata\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Annunziata + Desai Advisors<\/em>
Leonardo Gambacorta\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Bank for International Settlements (BIS)<\/em>
Livia Pancotto\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>University of Strathclyde<\/em>
Elijah Oliveros-Rosen\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>S&P Global Ratings<\/em>
Ken Simonson\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Associated General Contractors of America (AGC)<\/em>
Macrina Wilkins\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Associated General Contractors of America (AGC)<\/em>
Alessio Mazzanti\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Latam Investment Banking<\/em>
Dan Cooper\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>EY<\/em>
Ari Constantinou\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>EY<\/em>
Alenka Grealish\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Celent (part of GlobalData)<\/em>
Laura de la Torre de Skipsey\u2014<\/i> <\/strong>Mexico Sotheby\u2019s International Realty<\/em>
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source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Valerie Hernandez, International Banker In recent months, the US government under President Donald Trump has sought to revive a reinterpreted version of the Monroe Doctrine. Widely dubbed the \u201cDonroe Doctrine\u201d, it seeks to reassert the United States\u2019 historical supremacy over the Western Hemisphere. In the early hours of January 3, US special forces conducted a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11465,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-11464","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalnewstoday.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalnewstoday.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalnewstoday.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalnewstoday.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalnewstoday.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/globalnewstoday.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11464\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalnewstoday.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11465"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalnewstoday.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalnewstoday.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalnewstoday.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}