New era begins: AI outperforms traditional hurricane models – WAFB

MIAMI, Fl. (WAFB) – A new report from the National Hurricane Center gives us a clearer picture of which hurricane forecast models performed best in 2025. One of the biggest takeaways is the impressive debut of artificial intelligence.
For the first time, AI-based models were used in real-time hurricane forecasting. They did more than just participate. They impressed.
The Google DeepMind model was one of the top performers of the entire season. It slightly outperformed the National Hurricane Center’s official forecasts for storm track predictions in the short term, up to about three days out.
That is a big deal. Traditional models have been refined over decades, while AI models are brand new to operations. This early success suggests AI could play a much bigger role in forecasting in the near future.
Hurricane track forecasts, meaning where a storm will go, were very accurate in 2025.
0comments
The National Hurricane Center still performed extremely well overall. However, the DeepMind model stood out, especially in the early forecast periods. In the graphic below, DeepMind is represented by the green line. Note how it’s at the top through 72 hours. At days 4 and 5 (96, 120 hours), DeepMind and NHC were neck and neck.
Among traditional models:
Predicting how strong storms will become remains more difficult.
In 2025:
Even so, the National Hurricane Center still did a strong job. It often beat most models and performed similarly to the top performer, which again was the DeepMind AI model. Again, DeepMind is represented by the green line in the graphic below. Its intensity forecasts prevail as the best through 60 hours, with NHC neck and neck at 72 and 96 hours, and taking the lead at 120 hours.
Behind DeepMind:
One of the biggest forecasting challenges is rapid intensification, when a storm quickly strengthens.
These events are difficult to predict, but there is some good news. The National Hurricane Center’s forecasts were generally more accurate than the models in these situations.
This could mark the beginning of a major shift in how hurricanes are forecast in the years ahead.
Click here to report a typo. Please include the headline.
Click here to subscribe to our WAFB 9 News daily digest and breaking news alerts delivered straight to your email inbox.
Watch the latest WAFB news and weather now.
Copyright 2026 WAFB. All rights reserved.
We want to hear what you think. Create a free account to share your thoughts. Read our community guidelines here.

source